2015 Hot Starts

We’re almost 10% into the 2015 MLB baseball season, so just for funsies lets look at the stat leaders and extrapolate their season if they were to miraculously maintain their hot start through the entire season. “Hot start” might not be quite right for some of these stats like HBP, and HRs Allowed.

LA Dodgers Training Session

 Stat  2015 Total  2015 Leader Games Played Projected Season Total All-time Record Record Holder
BATTING
HR 8 Nelson Cruz 15 86 73 Barry Bonds (2001)
R 15 Wil Myers 16 152 198 Billy Hamilton (1894)
RBI 17 Nelson Cruz 15 184 191 Hack Wilson (1930)
SB 9 Billy Hamilton 13 112 138 Hugh Nicol (1887)
WAR 1.4 Adrian Gonzalez 14 16.2 12.5 Barry Bonds (2001)
1B 19 Dee Gordon 15 205 225 Ichiro Suzuki (2004)
2B 9 Troy Tulowitzki 15 97 67 Earl Webb (1931)
3B 3 Sam Fuld 15 32 36 Chief Wilson (1912)
HBP 6 Anthony Rizzo 14 69 51 Hughie Jennings (1896)
SO 22 Chris Carter 14 255 223 Mark Reynolds (2009)
PITCHING
WAR 1.1 Max Sherzer 3 12 20.5 Pud Galvin (1884)
SO 35 Clayton Kershaw 4 284 513 Matt Kilroy (1886)
HBP 3 Felix Hernandez, Tyler Matzek, Mike Pelfrey, Wei-Yin Chen, Kendall Graveman 3 32 54 Phil Knell (1891)
H Allowed 29 Jered Weaver, Kyle Kendrick 4 235 772 John Coleman (1883)
ER Allowed 20 Bud Norris 3 216 291 John Coleman (1883)
HR Allowed 7 Cole Hamels 4 57 50 Bert Blyleven (1986)

johncolemanThere were more ties than I listed, but I used the lower games played or plate appearances as a tie breaker. The baseball season is so long I expected the projected 2015 numbers to be higher than the all-time records in every category, but that was actually only the case for six of the sixteen stats.

What else did we learn? Nelson Cruz is off to a fantastic start. Barry Bonds was really good at baseball. John Coleman was really bad at pitching, but still must have played a lot. You did not want to face Phil Knell because he would probably hit you with a pitch. How many seasons did that monster end? Matt Kilroy’s strikeout stat will never be broken, unless they raise the mounds back up.

There weren’t any huge surprises among the 2015 stat leaders, so perhaps many of these guys will maintain something close to their current pace. Time will tell what was just a small sample size, and what is the start of a record breaking season.

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